gleams. But the stronger the dollar, the lower the price of gold tends to fall.
According to Bart Melek, the global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto, investors and observers can expect to see the price of gold to climb as the dollar continues to weaken.
Since April 11, 2018 gold bullion lost about 5% in value, due to a surging dollar. Despite confusion in Italy and other uncertainties around the world, gold was selling for under $1300. Melek is predicting a surge in the price during the final quarter of 2018 to an average of $1375 an ounce, and could possibly hit a high price of $1400.
“As time moves on, there’ll be less and less reasons to get into the U.S. dollar, which will likely reverse some of the flows,” said Melek, a speaker at a precious metals conference in Singapore. “We do ultimately think that as we move into 2019, the U.S. dollar will weaken, which is a very powerful fuel for the gold complex.”
The outlook for the very near future is less optimistic for gold, whcich Melek does not believe will rise given the dollars continued strengthening. In addtion, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates two more times this year. Prices for gold will most likely average at about $1290 in the third quarter, and $1300 in the fourth quarter of 2018.
The S&P downgraded the United States credit rating from AAA to AA+ on Friday with a warning of potential future downgrades. The downgrade was unprecedented but certainly necessary. America has over the years built up its 14 trillion dollar debt and cannot repay it. America has simply printed money in order to maintain its cash flow, without investing in new development.
The S&P credit rating is supposed to reflect America’s ability to pay its debts. China, Japan and other countries are heavily invested In America and suddenly the value of their investment has dropped. Why is this important to the American economy? Because the economy is based on borrowing money and other nations will stop lending because it is a poor credit risk. Indeed, US debtors are likely to call in their debts rather than to wait and watch the value of the American currency deflate and loose its value.
The economy is slowing down and entering a recession. The usual treatment for recession is government stimulus spending. However, government spending is not stimulating the economy. America’s unemployment rate is officially over 9 % and the GDP is under 2% and in reality is probably much worse than those figures. The government has provided no stimulus measures such as jobs programs or stimulus to business. All it has done is agreed to raise the debt ceiling and print more money. Currently, America pays $250 billion interest per year on its debt.
The weakening of America’s economy is something that people with financial and economic backgrounds could have seen coming if they were willing to face it. Now it is becoming clear to everyone that America will be forced to make difficult concessions to repay its debts and to repair its economy.